Just because a relatively low number of people have COVID-19 today does not impact your odds of getting it in the future. To think otherwise is to use the exact same logic Trump used weeks ago when only 10 people had it in the whole country; now 200,000 people have it (a figure which is estimated to be as much as 80% lower than the actual number due to lack of testing and the extraordinary range of symptomatic responses). Project that exponential growth forward and your odds of getting it are actually quite high.
Early in the 14th century, there was a time at which only one person had The Black Plague – seven years later, 50 million people/60% of Europe was dead. I’m not saying those will be close to the numbers here, but the numbers will still be high. We can keep them lower by being safe and cautious. Please be careful, both in your actions and in your posts; we must all act in a way that we would want everyone to behave to save as many people as we can. If we do that, then your odds remain low. If not, then our trouble is very much just beginning.
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The above is a slightly edited version of a message I sent to someone I love very much who was uncharacteristically repeating Trump’s style of thinking regarding COVID-19, and thought I would post it publicly here because I think this perspective is very important as we all strive to act responsibly for the duration of this crisis. Please feel free to share, or to copy and paste – we must not lose sight of our moral responsibility for collective action.
